The Way forward: Conclusions and Recommendations:

Anastasios Eleftheriou
Department of Biology
University of Crete

1. Introduction
At the end of this international conference on sustainable development of the Mediterranean and Black Sea Environment, it is our intention to make a meaningful contribution towards the EU “shared vision” and proposed Action Plan for scientific and technological co-operation between the two regions.

During its EU Presidency term, Greece, the only EU member state at present situated in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, has given a strong emphasis to the environmental problems of the region, focusing on such issues, culminating in the Thessaloniki Ministerial meeting of 27th June.

One of the aims of the present conference was to create a long-term and long-lasting platform where discussions (which could lead to solutions) can take place between private and public stakeholders concerning environmental stability problems, as well as the identification of relevant operational methods and tools for decision-making. To this end, the conference brought together not only experts from all over the region, but from all over the world and all have provided important information on the chosen thematic areas which are described in detail elsewhere.

2. Mediterranean/Black Sea Sustainable Development proposed plan of action

2.1 Recommendation process

These experts have shown us the status quo, the state of the art, and the gaps that still exist in our practical and theoretical knowledge. If there is to be a coherent plan of action, then the filling of these gaps will form a major part of measurable progress in each thematic area.

There follows a very brief resume of the contributions to each thematic area outlining the identified gaps in the knowledge followed by an agreed set of recommendations arising out of the Rapporteurs’ reports of conference discussions and round tables.

2.2.1. Thematic Area - Climate change: gaps in our knowledge
· Though an extensive observing system does exist, and there are forecast models on a variety of scales in the Med and the Black Sea, yet there remains a real gap in ecosystem modelling.
· There is a major need to better understand the role that global forcing exerts in the Mediterranean and the Black Sea.
· In order to make realistic predictions, we need to have a better understanding of PAST climate change.
· We have not produced a conclusive theory as to what triggered off the short but dramatic climatic transient that took place in the Mediterranean fifteen years ago

2.2.2 Thematic Area - Climate change: recommended actions
· Operational models should aim at integrating the information they provide into simple indicators
· We need to have a better understanding of past climate, with measurements and models in order to forecast realistically varied scenarios
· The existing observation system should be related to other global observational systems
· The forcing effect of natural but mainly anthropogenic aerosols on the Mediterranean and Black Seas should be investigated
· Forecast models should run on operational mode and should be checked against data
· There should be downscaling of operational models on the shelf scale

2.3.1 Thematic Area -Sustainable land use and CZM: gaps to be filled
The challenge here, with intense pressure from the combination of natural changes with increasing and highly concentrated human use, is
· how to ensure sustainable utilisation of the natural resources,
· how to avoid the creation of thresholds that will seriously hamper sustainability
The problems are:
-coastal zones in both areas are heavily influenced by inland activities, especially subsidised agriculture
-coastal erosion is a major problem for which no standard solution has yet been found
-policy and coastal zone management are sectoral so decision-making remains fragmented

2.3.2 Thematic Area -Sustainable land use and CZM – recommended actions
· Integrated approaches to CZM should be developed, with coast and catchment areas treated as one system
· Joint efforts and activities of both natural and social sciences is a prerequisite for developing a successful management system
· Because there is limited understanding of global and regional changes impacting on the coastal zone, those global changes which affect the coastal zone must be identified, modelled and analysed
· Solutions must be found to avert the steadily increasing coastal erosion.

2.4.1 Thematic Area- Impact of human activities: gaps in the knowledge
· Problems arising from the effects of microbial pollution in the Mediterranean coastal zone persist and are mainly related to urban waste water.
· Changes in productivity are linked to anthropogenic nutrient loads, perhaps the result of global change
· The spatial distribution of heavy metal pollution and organic pollutants, is not well studied
· The processes, pathways and fate of these pollutants in Black Sea are not well knownThe geographical imbalance of data is more acute.The intake of pathogenic micro-organisms causing damage to health still has to be determined.There are large stretches of coastal zones, for which records are very sparse.

2.4.2 Thematic Area- Impact of human activities: recommended actions
· The ecological indicators needed to capture complexities of coastal systems must be regularly monitored
· Sources of pollution (e.g. non-point sources in agriculture) must be identified and the biological effects of long-range pollutants must be ascertained.Research and data on virus contamination is required on a basin scale. Scarcity of data is probably the main issue in the two regions. Monitoring capabilities of some countries have to be improved.

2.5.1 Thematic Area - Deep Sea Management of resources and integration with coastal zone: gaps to be filled
The eastern Med. has many diverse environments whose existence and whose influence is just becoming known from recent research carried out by state-of-the-art high technology. Active tectonics are responsible for deep basins, hydrothermal activity, mud volcanoes, cold seeps, brine lakes and canyons. These aspects, in combination with the unique hydrography (warm deep-waters, deep water mass formation whose variation exerts strong influence) have given rise to unique ecosystems, none of which has been fully investigated and consequently are not understood. Within these unique ecosystems live a few deepwater species which have a cold water origin (North Atlantic) yet they survive and indeed thrive in deep warm conditions where they need a high food supply.

2.5.2 Thematic Area - Deep Sea Management of resources and integration with coastal zone: recommended actions
· There is an urgent need for detailed sea mapping to find hydrothermal areas, volcanic hot spots
· There is a need to understand the inter-connectivity of these unique ecosystems
· There is a need to use the eastern Mediterranean as a test bed for adaptation studies of benthic species colonising from the Atlantic
· There is a need to find where gas hydrates occur, in what quantity and whether they can be recovered

2.6.1 Thematic Area -Biodiversity Changes: gaps to be filled
· Patterns and changes in marine biodiversity are poorly known, with unexplored areas, ecosystems & groups
· The loss of coastal habitats a major global concern
· There is insufficient harmonisation of classical and molecular techniques
· There is a lack of studies concerning the coupling of biodiversity with ecosystem functioning, productivity and economic profitability
· There is little information on the effects of fishing gear on biodiversity
· There is a lack of long-term data and comparative datasets/methodology, analysis, reference sites

2.6.2 Thematic Area -Biodiversity Changes recommended actions
· There should be a coordinated effort to collate existing info by building a Mediterranean and Black Sea database.
· Comparative studies are vneeded concerning fishing gear effects: protected areas vs fished areas, in specific habitats
· There is a need to define common protocols and to test the old and new tools (indicators) o throughout the Med. and Black Sea areas
· There is a unique opportunity in area because of huge bacterial biodiversity to search for new bacterial patterns and processes which may affect the entire planet

2.7.1 Thematic Area- Biotechnology: gaps to be filled
· 90% industrial enzymes are of microbial origin, and marine microorganisms are the least well known
· Hardly any microorganisms have been isolated, yet these are likely to be important for industry
· Population genetic analysis based on DNA markers can identify status and history of species
· Sponges are sources of pharmaceutically active substances: the challenge is to maintain the associated bacterial community

2.7.2 Thematic Area- Biotechnology: recommended actions
· There should be the development of DNA taxonomy system
· There should be further research into microbial and macrobial faunas from hydrothermal vents and cold seeps, part of a new discipline called “Ecogenomics”
· There should be studies in the maintenance of sponge bacterial communities
· There should be genetic studies on influence of hydrographic, climatic and anthropogenic factors in marine species

2.8.1 Thematic Area -Fisheries and aquaculture: gaps to be filled
· Knowledge of fisheries in the two regions needs to be improved.
· The quality of fishery statistics still one of the main weaknesses in dealing with actual fishing effort, structure and capacity of difference types of fishing vessels
· Selection of sites for aquaculture must conform to EU environmental regulations, with knowledge needed of carrying capacity, etc
· However, the collapse of fish stocks worldwide is indicative of management failure to sustain natural resources. Perhaps there is a need to re-examine marine sustainability which is basically a terrestrial concept-and to look to the concept of adaptability instead
· Food safety, of paramount importance, has developed management paradigms to help the private sector to develop a legal framework, the monitoring and control. This is lacking in an area of equally paramount importance-sustainable development in fisheries management policy.

2.8.2 Thematic Area – Fisheries and aquaculture: recommended actions
· The production of good quality statistics is a major priority
· Fisheries management system should be changed (since it is clearly ineffective) by following the food safety management paradigm
· In aquaculture, precise definitions of carrying capacity for fishfarms in the area are needed.

2.9.1 Thematic Area Thresholds of environmental sustainability: gaps to be filled
· Threshold valuesare needed to formulate sustainable development policies for coastal areas
· There is aneed to define economic costs and value of goods and services provided by coastal areas (estimated at twice global GDP)
· Since thresholds are regional specific,(response to P differs right across Med., continuum of thresholds across regions are needed
· Cost-benefit analysis must incorporate entire range of social and environmental costs
· Lack of integration of science, politics and economy results in substantial financial and environmental loss

2.9.2 Thematic Area-Thresholds of environmental sustainability recommended actions
· Sound scientific data are needed to accurately define thresholds
· Threshold concept should be incorporated into WPD
· Since the concept of thresholds is the cornerstone of sustainability, work needs to be done to define levels and values, in order to integrate separate aspects (science, politics and economics)
· Threshold and point of no return values must be used as a starting point for negotiating with other users

2.10.1 Thematic Area-Information Management: gaps to be filled
Though much work has been done in the last decade in the Mediterranean and Black Sea in the field of data management, the information collected by the countries is not always easily accessible. Some oceanographic databases have been developed (MEDATLAS 2000 Database) with wide international cooperation but much information remains scattered in various departments and institutions and in many cases it is not available in electronic form.

2.10.2 Thematic Area-Information Management: recommended actions
· It is vital that more information be centrally gathered in electronic form in national and international databases, so that it can be utilised easily by decision-makers in the administration and by other partners
· Quality assurance and control procedures should be further developed and implemented to ensure data quality and reliability.
· Allocated resources should increase to enable a continuous flow of high quality data,ie updating
· An assistance component should be developed which could include training and establishment of contacts with more advanced laboratories (sister approach).

3. Overall conclusions

3.1 Recommendation from M.Busquin
The Conference took note of Research Commissioner Philippe Busquin’s statement on 28th May, anticipating the Thessaloniki Ministerial Action Plan, that “The Mediterranean and Black Sea areas have been exploited for too long without any consideration of the eventual consequences. The EU must invest in integrated programmes of research to deliver sustainable development solutions and long-term environmental protection”

3.2 Establishment of regional platform
towards he establishment of a platform for the eastern Mediterranean and the Black Sea to link this geographic area and which could enhance the scientific, technical and political issues taking into account their unique contrasts and similarities as an interconnected large area.
The platform should take stock of existing and current activities of the area to prepare for future 6FP participation. There have been many valid suggestions for actions of many kinds, going right up to suggestions for Integrated projects. The proposed platform could be the object of a Specific Supporting Action, in which we use and develop the present website to maintain contact and exchange ideas on proposed events and projects.

3.3 Common approaches
Existing projects in both regions should be clustered in order to correlate the actions towards the development of common approaches, and projects of regional importance and impact should be further explored.

3.4 Creation of events
A series of events as a follow up of the current conference annually in different locations around the eastern Med and the Black Sea should be envisaged, following the pattern set out in the Thessaloniki Action Plan.

3.5 Mobility
The training and mobility of scientists and technicians should also fall within the scope of the proposed action as this is an indispensable element for future cooperation and networking.

3.6
The socio-economic impact, especially as outlined in the present conference, should be taken into account in formulating all future joint actions, particularly with regard to their contribution to sustainable development.